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Is summer about to end?

MONDAY JANUARY 14, 2013

Sadly the run of dry weather could be about to end for Auckland this coming weekend, as northeasterlies prepare to take over after 18 January and then last for the rest of the month, bringing rain every few days. (Update: rain came on 17 and 18 January, then in the east of the upper North Island 10 days later, clearing on 28th)

 

The ensuing northeasterly airstreams are then expected to continue off and on until 18 February. There are other fine intervals for Auckland to come, such as 30 January to 4 February and the last week of February, but apart from a few days around 23 February these days may not be as warm.

 

The last whole dry week for Auckland for this summer may begin 23 February and last until around 2 March. That week may also be the last of the above-25C maximums for the season.

 

For credibility of these claims, consider what we said on Yahoo News (NZ) on October 1, 2012. Quote: between 21st of November and 19th of January Auckland may have only about 5 rain days, with the 4th-22nd of December possibly the longest dry spell, followed by another between the 4th-18th of January.”

View here: http://nz.news.yahoo.com/opinion/post/-/blog/14984101/summer-outlook/

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There may be some who think that summer has not yet begun anyway, perhaps because they were stuck inside buildings until the Christmas break and did not notice how dry and sunny it has indeed been in Auckland since that last week in November.

 

We cannot trust our memories, and the dryness of the weather over the past two months in the north can be verified with figures and graphs from other websites. The graphs below are reprinted from Weather Underground and show (since 21 November) recordable rain in Auckland only around 29th of November, 6th, 24th, 25th and 30th of  December, and 3rd of January, making 6 rain days in all.

 

 

 

The above graphics may be further verified here:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IAUCKLAN5&day=6&year=2013&month=1&graphspan=month

 

At the time of this writing we are still only up to the 14th of January but when January is over the whole January Auckland graph will be reproduced here. The purpose of this post is to give warning to make the most of the remaining clear days. Some rain is expected, for example, on Anniversary Weekend and also on Waitangi Day.

 

That we did fortell the summer thus far, indicates the reliability of this lunar longrange weather method, bearing in mind that although the prediction was issued publicly on 1 October on Yahoo News and also on our website, the same information was residing in the 2012 and 2013 almanacs which are always written two years beforehand to satisfy publishers' timetables.

 

The best summer weather was always going to come at the front end of the season, and this year March, whilst remaining fairly warm, promises substantial rain amounts, also in April after the 8th. March will also probably usher in cyclones, as the late monsoon season finally gets going across the top of Australia, but the monsoon and cyclone seasons are likely to be fizzers.

 

So what is still in store for January? For Auckland, some heavy downpours are expected between 19-21 January. The lead-up to Anniversary Weekend may be dry but some rain is likely on the weekend itself, with more in eastern districts than in the west.  Skies then clear about 29 January for about 6 days before rain returns to hamper Waitangi Day celebrations.

 

In the next 4 weeks in other parts of the country, the rain count may be high in Marlborough and Nelson and parts of Northland.  Rotorua may also be wet.  Hawkes Bay rain also arrives at or near 19-20 January and again around 6 February. There should be sunny conditions in the next four weeks in all southern and eastern regions, particularly along the South Island West Coast, also Southland, central Otago and Canterbury. Most of the South Island may be dry 20-30 January. 

 

Temperatures are expected to be mostly closer to average but warmer than average in Otago and parts of Northland but cooler than average in inland Bay of Plenty, Marlborough, Nelson and coastal Southland.  

 

Overall, February may be sunny and mild but rain in the first week breaks a dry spell. Around 8th, there may be heavy rains and floods for NorthIsland and the West Coast of South Island but overall rain should be around average for both islands for that month. The driest district may be Northland. Auckland February rain is mostly around 6th, 12th and 15th.

 

In February both islands can expect average sunshine and average temperatures, except for warmer spots in Northland, Waikato, Central Plateau, Taranaki, Manawatu and lower North Island. Further south the West Coast may be warmer, also the hydrolakes to Queenstown and Te Anau.  The last week of February may see a brief return to summer weather for most.

 

So may we respectfully suggest that whatever needs still to be done in dry weather is indeed finished this week in the Auckland region.

 

There are sound scientific reasons for the earliness of the season, explainable by Moon orbits, and if anyone is interested in pursuing this ancient science much is described in the Weather Almanac for NZ for 2013.

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Details.aspx?id=53

 

 

For any further queries please email ken@predictweather.com


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