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Rain coming for Sydney

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 09, 2013

Transcript notes from interviews with 2UE hosts George and Paul on 8 December, and on 9 September Dicko and Sarah on the Breakfast Show.

The rain is about to arrive, after the predicted 8-9 weeks of drought in eastern Australia. There has only been one really significant rain day in July(10th) and one in Aug (8th). Disclaimer: allow 1-3 days for all forecasting, also 50-80kms radius of application/error. The following are notes extracted from the 500-page Weather Almanac for Australia 2013. http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=436&type=home

The 2014 version will be available from from this website around the end of October.

SPRING: Wetter by up to about 75%  more rain than average.
September, 2 wet spells are expected 12th-15th also 26th-30th, so things getting slightly better and slightly wetter,  It is possible that some NSW farmers could soon be in the clear, but maybe too much water might have to be managed, Some widespread storms may be clicking in from about the second half of September onwards.
October, expect twice the October average – mostly as a result of a single heavy rain event over the first week, ending about Labour Day with chances of flooding, also light rain 12th-15th and 31st, but really Oct is mostly dry after 8th
November, twice rain average, regular rain including heavy rain 1st-2nd, 14th-16th, 22nd and 29th-30th
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SUMMER: a fairly wet summer is expected but not as hot as last summer if we mean hotter temperatures - maximums went up to 45.8C on 18 Jan, and whereas last summer we counted 17 days over 30C, this year there could be more than that, maybe over 20. Most of these hotter days may be in Dec and Feb.  On or within a week of the 7 Dec it could get up to 37C. There has already been a September day over 30C. Only one more is likely for September, if that. Then October may have 1-4 days over 30C, November 2 such days, December about 5 days, January 2-3 days, February 6 days, March 2-3 days and April 0-2 days reaching 30C or over.

December twice rain average, best dry period 22nd-27
Christmas Day – dry
Boxing Day - Cloudy, dry and could be hot
New Years Eve –- Changeable, mostly sunny, but also brief showers,

January, The first half may yield regular rainy days espec between 13th-17th, +some flooding because of kingtides.  The driest interval may be 19th-26th. Warm spells in January are likely to be: 10th-12th, 18th-19th, 22nd, 25th, and especially hot around the 28th-30th
Australia Day- (26 Jan)-cloudy, look of rain, showers within 24 hrs, about 25C
 

February, heavy rain first few days, then a week to 10 days of dry, then rain 14th-19th (so plan for unsettled but humid conditions for Valentines day).  For rest of the month, regular showers but no significant heavy rain.
Warm spells 4th (in lower 30’s) 10th-17th, 27th-28th. Mostly dry second week
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AUTUMN
March, wet for first 3 weeks, fine and dry 22 March - 22 April, that may be the first significant prolonged dry spell for 2014
April, mostly dry, only wet 22-25, ANZAC weekend heavy rain should clear to mostly dry
May: dry first 10 days, then storm 12th-17th, Further rain 25th-30th including some heavy falls

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LIKELY TO BE THE LONGEST DRY SPELLS
Sept: 17th-25th
Oct:  15th-30th
Nov:  3rd-14th
Dec: 22nd-27th
Jan:  19th-26th
Feb:  4th-12th
Mar:  (dry: 23 March-21 April)
May: (dry 26 Apr-9 May)
June: 1st-20th

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For any further queries please email ken@predictweather.co.nz


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