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THURSDAY JANUARY 01, 2015

pic: Tahnanui Beach, Nelson, NZ







The year has started with a developing cyclonic event in the Samoa region

Our own map suggests

which we may have overcooked, but a southern progression of this is likely over the next 4 days before petering out.

For Australia/NZ we see


Our map shows

The front crosses NZ affecting the bottom of the SI but the north should stay under high pressure until around the 9th.

The monsoon season has begun in Darwin and will run until the beginning of April. Until mid Feb,  WA should be very hotNT should get above average rain; SA gets rain in Feb; VIC, rain near average; QLD, rain from monsoons and cyclones but SE dry; NSW, windy in Jan, rain up in far W and north.. 

In Ireland, some forecasters called for a dire white Xmas. We did not even mention snow, and few places, if any,  had a white Xmas  The 2014 almanac said, for 25 December,   “High pressure to the west and low pressure to the north and east with a freshening westerly airflow. Overcast with  frosts most districts although some brief sunny outbreaks likely in the southeast and milder in the far northwest. Some drizzle and rainy patches to the west and north but mostly dry to the east.   Belfast : Overcast, isolated showers, frosts, possible sleety showers  Dublin : Overcast and dull, frosts, mostly dry, some freezing drizzle patches likely  Cork : Cloudy, dry and cold, frosts   Galway : Overcast, frosts, light showers and drizzles, chance of overnight sleet and mists

In Ireland rain has come to most of the country in the past 24 hrs. This is due to clear over the next 4 days. 

We said heatwaves could come in the first week of January, around full moon time, and they have done. Other heatwave times should be mid and end of January, first and last weeks of February and mid March. These affect many regions, including Auckland, Marlborough, Canterbury and coastal Otago,  Some of the season's highest temperatures, possibly over 30C, will be in March's second week generating heat showers.


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