SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 13, 2015
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RECENT TWEETS SENT
Very humbled to receive a scroll of honour
at the VAC awards on Sunday night
Seismic risks as N Island in firing line of
new moon just after midnight tonight. Our Oct newsletter warns of possible
4+mag between 11-14th
2016 for Australia Long hot summer,
cyclones, autumn rains, but bad winter will cause crop damage in many states.
Still on track for first half of Nov being
nearest spell of more than a week of dry days in NZ. Discount for 2016
El Nino: facts vs factors Latest news
release from BoM revises everything they had previously predicted.
NZ for 2016 Serious drying out between
Otago and Canterbury, and Hawkes Bay. Special deal for 2016 weather almanacs
Ireland weather Light falls this week, but
heavier rain in second half of October. Next dry spell of more than 5-6 days is
at start of Nov.
In NZ Over past week of supermoon
timeframe, above average seismic activity - 16 recorded and felt earthquakes,
the highest being 4.4mag.
Strongest-ever El Nino? BS. Comprehensive
satellite data goes back only to 1979 so it would be impossible to call any El
Nino the worst ever
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/645711101129195521 The planet is doing fine. There is no problem. Let's do ourselves a favour and stop trying to make one up.
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/645485934830465024 After a wet Oct in NI, first half November should be dry for
most of NZ (20 days later and we're still on track)
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/644849355535478784 On 5 August our tweet warned "Snow possible at or
near..16 Sept. for Christchurch" https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/628573596240052225 Just keeping the skeptics honest
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/645005354871361536 NZ did NOT get a tsunami. CHILE did.
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/644342088100741120 Southland can expect wet early summer, then dry Jan, then
average Feb. Cheviot gets good rain in second half of Nov. Then drought
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/644329418626744321 Concern in NZ could be ear damage due to tsunami alarms. Wave takes 12 hours to get here. Large eqs also come to NZ
within month after Chile
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/644141410686386176 Ireland Next dry spell of 5 days or more starts 2 October, then 2
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/643235056224370688 Next 4 wks very wet Coromandel, E Northland + Auckland. Very dry W Coast + Sthn Lakes. Temps below avge, espec S and E.
Cldy NI, sunny SI
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/643080810510155776 Ireland Next 4 weeks; warm and mostly sunny, very dry in the east For more info, apply for our free newsletter http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Register.aspx
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/642697813457924096 Ireland. For the 22-24 Sept Laos Ploughing
Championships, light rain may dampen the event.
Drier time 2-8 October
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/640875273114779648 Most of NZ on below rain averages after Oct. Worst hit may be Gis/HB for summer drought. Need to stock up on mulch.
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/640645744785928192 Next widespread rain near the end of the week
for most of NZ, and mostly in evening and overnight. Also good fishing chances
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/640507897386893312 Lamb loss preventable. I told Farming Show earlier in year: don't
put rams out before end April because frosts would last to 23 Sept
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/640149138789629952 Talk of records is a function only of the
digital age, not of nature. It is not hotter than ever before.
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/640148590162153472 Erosion's not new - how about reverse
erosion. Otherwise all coastlines would have vanished millions of years ago
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/639432250220658688 Australia. Chance widespread rain 12-14 Sept for NSW,
QLD, Alice Springs, VIC and SA. WA rain Geraldton to Esperance likely from
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/639380174203564032 Auckland and Wellington unlikely to see a dry
spell of more than 4 days before a dry first half of November. Not so
Christchurch and Dunedin
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/639037655678779392 Not record warmest year. Met stations in
warmer sites, cooler sites closed, in 1990s digital replaced analogue which
couldn't read tenths
About 8 days dry weather, then stormy in
southern half around 8th-10th, then 13-15th, give or take a day
Almanac 2016 Fathers Day Special, 15% discount for this week only. Who will
suffer a drought this summer?
earthquake risk 14-17 Sept in San Francisco-Mexico region. Reason: moon
crossing equator, new moon, in furthest apogee of the year.
rain and chances of flooding in second half Aug. Aug mild, up to 19-20C at
times Sept wet first half.
Misquoted by media. I said Aug is WET and no significant dry spells until first
weeks of both Oct then Nov. http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=519&type=home …,
predicted http://connachttribune.ie/late-summer-holidays-594/ …
"wet 1st and 4th weeks July and 1st and 3rd weeks Aug" Aug also
working out http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=788d54fc5b584b10501443ffb&id=031b910516&e=105acffc61 …
For NSW skiers
At Snowy Mts, good this weekend until mid next week. Next good time is all of
the first half of Sept
skiing til Thursday. Then 10-14 Sept Whakapapa 14-19 Aug. Then 1-4 and 16-20
Sept Oct. no dates - Nov ok
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/630305214927536128 Significant drought
after Sept. for a SI region. No rain past single digits until March 2016.
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/630304165764280320 South Is. not nearly
finished with snow. Chch last snow 17 Oct, Cheviot and high country about 20
Jan. Snow well into October for others
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/630303315268472833 Hawaii Current hurricane
in SE China is making Hawaiians anxious. But such intense storms unlikely for
Honolulu until second half of October
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/628754639320678400 Florida: More heavy
rain (+possible flooding) around: Mid Aug Last few days Sept 2nd week Oct 2nd
and 4th weeks Nov Xmas Day 2nd week Jan
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/628573596240052225 In NZ Snow possible
at or near 1-3 and 16 Sept. for Christchurch. In N Is., if operators will
extend ski season it could end in mid November
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/628569930770726912 (5 Aug) In NZ, 15
Aug, wintry both islands, rough in Cook Strait. 25 Aug, cold blast N Is., snow
showers C Plateau. 30 Aug, snow for Chch. +/- a day
rain somewhere in region right until 18th. 19th-20th clear then back to the
wet. Wellington rain: 6, 12-17th, 20-25th and 29-30th
Cork, warm temps second half August, but risks of flooding at end of August,
first half of Sept, end of Oct and end of Nov.
risks August for NZ 6-7th (3rdQ) 11th (N dec) 14-18th (NM - Apogee) 21st -23rd
(1stQ) 30th (FM+Perigee) http://t.co/wLLQBHuf2Z
- UK and Ireland Exceptionally warm month. Followed by unusually mild winter.
No frosts/snow until December. Reason: lunar cycle.
El Nino this year and next? http://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/106259-el-nino-intensifies.html
… Hey NIWA, not news - we tweeted exactly that 21 monthsago .https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/439216969649106945
August in NZ Three main rain phases: 9-13, 21-25 and
28-31 August, give or take a day
Stories of mini-ice age freezing winters soon for Ireland is misplaced.
This winter mild.
No winter will be as cold as 2010 until 2021-22
Climate comes from
1. angle of sun's rays (latitude)
2. direction of prevailing winds
3. topography of land.
None of those changeable by man
Re global warming and sea level rise, Hold a 2000C blowtorch above a pan of
water the water will boil and the level go down. A 2C blowtorch?
In 1998 NIWA said the sea level was rising at 1mm per year, which is 10cms per
century. What has changed their minds? Science not settled?
So sea level rising 3m per century? NIWA says 1m, Al Gore says 65m. If
can't agree how much rise, how are they certain it's rising at all?
August in NZ
13th-16th: snow both islands
28th-31st: chance of floods in lower NI +parts of Cant.
31st: earthquake risk
August for NZ
Drier than av in NI, espec BoP and HB. Most rain 13th, 22nd and 30th.
Wetter than av in SI, most rain 11th, 21st-23rd and 30th
Australian meteorologists are guessing the El Nino will peter out in spring.
My calculation: the EN will carry on until midway through 2016
Ireland goes dry next Tuesday 28 July until about 1 Aug,
Then heaviest rain for August all in the first week of Aug
This morning's widespread fog was missed by the NZ Metservice, but predictable
by today's 1st Quarter moon
Ken Ring added,
Ken Ring @kenringweather 1st Q moon (24th) can tend to rain, fog,
cloud or tornadoes, usually before noon.
"Rain before 7 gone by 11" refers mostly to this phase..
Ireland; temp swing 29 July - 1 Aug.
Autumn temps not before third week Oct
Cold enough for frosts from about 18 Oct
For Ireland, August may be dry about 1st, 18th, 28th.
Heavy rain in first week. First half of month is the wettest.
autumn will be warm, average rain and above average sun.
Followed by a mild winter.
Drought begins in NZ from second week of December, mainly affects eastern
regions, Hawkes Bay,
S Canterbury, Waikato, BoP.
Mid August: wintry conditions both islands NZ, swells+high winds Cook Strait,
typhoon in Hongkong,
Last week Aug: wintry blast North island
This week: heavy rain Japan, floods eastern Europe+Poland, snow Ruapehu,
Desert Rd closes
End July: bad weather far north, floods Germany
20-23 July, potential for moderate quake activity SI of NZ.
Many planet aspects + apogee on 21st.
Just before night low tides at Lyttleton
15-16 July our next moderate earthquake risk.
Then 23rd-24th. Blame new moon.
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Next wintry blast for NZ 20-24 July. Then 28-30 July.
Frost danger for lambing in South Island
should be largely over by 23 September.