2016 for NZ in brief

Looking ahead to next year

If not for a very wet July in 2016 the North Island would have a drier than average year. The same can be said for October for the South island. The main feature of 2016 will be a serious drying out between Otago and Canterbury and Hawkes Bay.  Areas which began to dry out in August of this year are likely to continue receiving soil moisture deficits through to the end of 2016 almost to levels where plant growth ceases. Between August 2015 and December 2016 some areas may record only 2 months with above average rainfall.

Despite one or two very dry regions the anticipated El Nino is expected to be weak and may not affect all. Some, like BoP, Waikato, Rot/Taupo should get good relieving rains in March. Throughout February heatwaves and drought from frequent hot northwesterlies will affect the east, but Fiordland and coastal Otago should stay wet. 

Autumn brings unusual warmth to the north and east whilst the south and west of South Island receive rain.  Remnants of cyclonic systems affect us in the last part of March and through April, but may be few in number. One early in April brings high winds from north and west as it crosses the lower South Island.  By mid-April warm seas and anticyclones result in continued warmth over North Island, and even well into May the talk will be of an Indian Summer. 

Winter keeps the east dry and the lower NI wet.  June is still warm and cloudy in the north but the second half of July brings high rainfall with flooding to northern half of North Island and northern South Island, and dry conditions for the far south. Because of lateness of lasting snow skiers may have to wait until mid-August for their season to open.  In the second half of August it is still dry in the east but wet, warm and cloudy in the north.  Over much of the South Island, winter cold will often arrive with sunshine. 

September is sunny and continuing dry in the east and north of the North Island but wet in south of the South Island. November's first half sees northwesterly gales bring rain and possible flooding to Taranaki, Buller and central New Zealand whilst Gisborne and Hawkes Bay continue to be dry. 

After mid-November, La Ni?a easterlies bring dry weather to west and south of the South Island, warmth to the north and west, but cooler conditions in many parts of the east. By the second half of December, agricultural drought is back in full swing, affecting the North Island and Canterbury.  

Monthly and weekly breakdowns for each district during 2016 are in the NZ Weather Almanac, which can be ordered from 2016 Weather Almanac