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NZ season update

THURSDAY MARCH 31, 2016


WINTER
The east stays dry and the lower North Island is wet. June is still warm and cloudy in the north but the second half of July brings high rainfall with flooding to northern half of North Island and northern South Island, and dry conditions for the far south. Because of lateness of lasting snow NI skiers may have to wait until mid-August for their season to open. August - In the second half it is still dry in the east but wet, warm and cloudy in the north. Over much of the South Island, winter cold will often accompanied by sunshine. 

SPRING
September - sunny and continuing dry in the east and north of the North Island but wet in south of the South Island. 
October - a very wet month for the SI. 
November - the first half sees north-westerly gales bring rain and possible flooding to Taranaki, Buller and central New Zealand whilst Gisborne and Hawkes Bay continue to be dry. After mid-November, La Nina easterlies bring dry weather to west and south of the South Island, warmth to the north and west, but cooler conditions in many parts of the east. 
December - in the second half, agricultural drought is back in full swing, expected to affect the North Island and Canterbury. 

RANKING OF CONDITIONS FOR YEAR
The driest will be Gis/HB, then Cant then S Cant then Coastal Otago.
The wettest will be the top of the SI (due to July and Oct), then Taranaki, then SI WC then Auckland.
The driest months for the NI will be January then Feb then April, and for the SI, Nov then May then Jan. 
The heaviest rains in the year will be in the NI, on 11-12 and 18 July, 20 Aug and 7 Nov. In the SI the wettest months will be March, July and Oct.
The sunniest month for both islands should be January, and the cloudiest month will be June.
The coldest month in the NI will be August, and for the SI, July.
The hottest month in both islands may be February then March. 


Driest regions in 2016
Gis/HB 
Canterbury + S Cant 
Coastal Otago 

Wettest regions in 2016
Auckland 
Taranaki 
Central Plateau 
Top of SI 
South Island West Coast  

Regional expectations for next dry trends
Northland fairly dry from end of this December to June:(5 months dry)
Auckland dryness until next March rain. (4 months dry)
BoP dry from November to end of February. (3 months dry)
Waikato dry from December to March
Rot/Taupo dry from November to March.  (3 months dry)
Gis/HB rain deficiencies from November to July. (7 months dry)
Cent Plat dries out only through January
Taranaki dry only through January
Manawatu dry from November to June.  (6 months dry)
Lower NI dry from November to March
SI West Coast dry only through January
The top of SI goes into drought until March.  (5 months dry)
Canterbury dry from August to March. (6 months dry)
S Canterbury dry from November to March. (3 months dry)
Coastal Otago dry from January to March
The Lakes dry from Sept to March. (5 months dry)
Inland Otago dry from January to March
Southland dry from January to March


The NZ Weather Almanac for 2016 is still available until stocks run out, from   http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Details.aspx?id=328


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