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The 18.613 yr cycle


Finland correspondent Anne Poyhonen writes that in the Baltic sea tides are slight, normally not exceeding 6 inches. But recently the sea water level rose to its highest record, it was 1.3 - 2 metres above normal and higher on the east of the Gulf of Finland. It was only 7 inches from the level that would have brought down all four nuclear power reactors in Finland.  They use sea water for cooling and are located on the seaside. Anne says she was born very near the other two's location and now they are building a third one between them and the sea. An elderly acquaintance said he remembers two other times when the sea rose that high: they were about 18.6 years in between so the cycle concerned is clear. He lives on the seaside so he has been observing sea closely all his life. 


The west coast of NZ is a long way from Finland. Beaches on the west coast are not all the same and the west coast is not the same as the east coast. For example the waterfornt properties on Takapuna beach and Orewa are under no threat. So to blame global warming is just greenie claptrap. The west coast of the South Island is notorious for erosion. This is no new phenomenon. Erosion is a natural process which occurs on all land, especially exposed to wind and sea from the west. It becomes a problem for people only when it disrupts their activities. New Zealand is a geologically unstable country with a variable climate. These factors make our landscape susceptible to high natural rates of erosion, particularly where the land such as the west coast is the first land exposed to viscious westerly winds and currents from the Tasman.

The Tasman Sea is not a calm lake. Some disruption by natural erosion has to be expected given our geology and climate. Erosion went on for millions of years before man reached these shores. And erosion is particularly endemic on the West Coast on account of its high rainfall and short, steep rivers.


Coming back to the Finland connection, tidal energy changes over an 18- 19 year cycle.  Not surprisingly it is also the erosion cycle (<>) and 2006 just happens to be the peak year of lunar maximum declination. Marlin and other deepwater species of game fish are appearing on the West Coast for the first time since 1988. It seems at least big fish are aware of this cycle even if humans are not. In peak erosion years the tides are higher due to the maximum declination of the moon. After this year the peak will have passed. But high tides are no sudden new phenomena and very high tides are also no novelty.


We can add to the erosion factor the higher tidal fact that NZ has had freak waves all year. On 1/26/06 freak New Year tides arrived at Matarangi in the Coromandel and even poured over a hastily built sand wall, flooding the volleyball courts during a tournament. Australian meteorologists warned Fiji and the Pacific region of the highest tides in 26 years that were expected to sweep in on Tuesday, the 28th of February. The so-called king tides were the highest for the period 1990 to 2016. Highest tides peak this year due to maximum lunar declination. Quite simply highest tide-years cause more erosion. Freak waves around Westport have been very common this year. On 8 April a teenager was swept off rocks by swells of 5m at Joyce bay, Charleston, 27km SW of Westport. The sea on the Monday, the 10th, went from extremely dangerous to very dangerous. The area is notorious for freak waves. That day the sea was particularly rough. Neither the Coastguard nor surf rescuers had been able to put to sea in the rough conditions. In the week of 25/5/06 as we all know four people went missing in the freezing waters of FoveauxStrait. Three out of 9 in the boat were rescued and two were found dead. It is thought a freak wave swamped their fishing boat causing the tragedy. It only takes one freak wave to wreak huge collateral damage, a tsunami is one freak wave, but one wave doesn't mean the globe is warming.


The highest of the spring tides occur during the summer months of December, January and February and also in the winter months of June, July and August. The highest tides of the year were following New moon this March (3/3/06) and will be following Full moon in September (9/7/06). Exactly the same happened on those dates in 1987.


So the good people of the West Coast should look back in their records and see when the tides were last as high and last when erosion was as bad. These tide heights will differ for each piece of coastline. They can then familiarise themselves more with the cycle that is operating in each area.. Shame on TV3 for such an ill-researched piece of tripe.


The Finnish people were believed by others to be able to control all weather. Thus Vikings refused to take Finns on their raids by sea. Remnants of this belief lasted well into the modern age, with many ship crews being reluctant to accept Finnish sailors. It is more likely that the Finns realised centuries ago what the cycles were and exploited it. My correspondent Anne writes that in centuries past the 18.6 year cycle was commonly used as a basis for the yearly weather prediction in almanacs in Germany, Sweden and Finland. The academy that published the almanacs tried to omit it in each country but people threatened to not buy the almanacs. Rather than lose its major source of income the academy had to keep publishing the weather predictions. For example, she writes, the First Finnish language almanac was printed in 1705 and a few years later the publisher tried to omit the weather predictions. The same had happened in Germany a century earlier. So whilst the publishers bowed to demand and retained the predictions, one wrote in his almanac "people want to be deceived so let them be deceived". 1846-49 saw famines in Ireland, Netherlands and Finland. The final straw came when just short of 19 years later came, as predicted, the worst famine of the century 1866-1868. After that, weather predictions were omitted from the Finnish almanac  Apparently people had no further stomach for predictions of catastrophe, even successful ones. velopment? That is not the whole globe by any means, even if inhabitants of those towns might pretend otherwise.

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