If it was really randomly chaotic, cycles would not exist. But we
at Predictweather have tried to identify the repeatable cycles of weather as a method of prediction that might be useful for outdoor businesses. Claiming, as regular mets do, that this can't be done is like saying the tides at the beach are regular for a day or two, but after that high or low tides occur at random. We feel weather is cyclic and patterned, as is the rest of nature; enough for trends to be predictable years in advance and for a student of cycles to form a reliable opinion of future trends. Nevertheless we are aware not all share similar opinions (see below under Advertising Standards Authority), and this website may not be for them.
We have been producing yearly almanacs for NZ, Australia and Ireland up to the end of 2017. Each has 450-500 pages and the NZ version was available every year since 1999-2017, the Australian since 2007-2017 and the Ireland book 2010-2017. It was a massive amount of work. We did a UK version in 2001 but pirating issues lead us to discontinue. The almanacs did contain yearly summaries for the country and individual regions, a severe events diary, daily forecasts and isobaric maps for all large towns, temperature graphs, rain tables and an explanation of what produces weather, also a look ahead for the next decade and much more that is of help to the farmer and event planner. Perhaps in the future we may take up the almanac process again.
Ordering forecast reports for NZ and Ireland
You can get weather reports yourself for any period and location in NZ and Ireland between now and 2019, by going to Forecasts, or at left.
When it opens up click on One week (or whatever), then fill out starting date, country (e.g. NZ), and your chosen region (e.g. Martinborough).
Then fill in credit card details. Our estimated daily forecast for that period will then arrive almost immediately, by emailed attachment. The minimum is under $7 for a week.
The accepted applicability/error in weather forecasting ranges over a 50-80 mile radius with a variation factor of 1-2 days. It is why mainstream weather agencies do not analyse themselves - it would be like a doctor analysing whether his prognoses of conditions clearing up were in 1, 2 or 3 days as he suggested at the time of consultation. Patients recognise that the doctor's opinion is subject to error, but they seek his opinion regardless. This work is the same. For those who start with a negative bias, our work will never be valued. But for those understanding and accepting the inexact nature of weather (like medicine), we feel confident we can give a window into possible weather trends to come. Taking a longer view is more reliable, and a 3-4 day window of potential will usually give a better understanding of forthcoming conditions than focussing on any one day. As mentioned already, we name a day only as a hypothetical point of focus, not a literal prediction, as the trend is the important factor. Although we do our best we will never get every day 100% exact. Weather, to those who live with and work with it, is full of surprises because we don't know all factors. Even commercial tide tables are not always exact. We aim to provide something useful, that a planner may be better off having than not having when making serious weather-related investment decisions. Because we do not claim any percentage of accuracy it is up to readers to make their own analyses. As these comments in various media articles show, some have found our work has indeed worked for them: http://breakfornews.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=109
The timing of high and low pressure zones are our specialty, rather than intensities, as this comparison shows. The anticyclones over NZ are shown on the map by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 10 March to match our map (bottom one) made over a year ago. The rather low pressures in the Coral Sea are also a match, even though they have become lower than we picked them to be. This is because intensity of weather events is due to the sun because of prior evaporation rates, whereas (we believe) the moon determines timing. (Our isobaric maps are available in 3-monthly sets).
Examples, showing the actual and our map, calculated a year beforehand
It is no fluke. The following is another example, first the BoM (Australian metservice) map for 9 May, followed by our own, worked out a year in advance,
(The accuracy has often been described as "uncanny")
We are a family trust set up to provide longrange weather services that are not available elsewhere. All profits fund design and development of the extensive website which is in constant need of update. In many cases costs are to cover administration expenses and to recover labour/time expenses in the case of longer documents, some of which may have required the purchase of archived data from climate office storage files. Books and reports break even and dispatch is contracted out. We do not advertise anywhere, have no advertising budget and do not indulge in aggressive marketing. Radio and print media interviews are usually given free and our staff are part-timers. We receive no funding from any goverment nor corporate sponsorship. There was a media accusation that because we were accurate in pre-warning people about Christchurch earthquake activity in 2010-11, that we used the earthquakes for self-promotion. But we never made a cent from earthquakes and never had any earthquake products available. Rather, we made it possible for others to make money from that disaster from their (often) misquoting from our articles and newsletters and from our website, face book pages and tweets, and for some television and radio personalities to impugn our work to raise their own ratings. Now we have a book, "How To Predict Earthquakes", for those who wish to pursue this.
We explain our position on global warming and climate change, a skeptic's stance that we have maintained since Predict Weather's first website version went live in 1996, and we were the first anti global warming website in this country. We still think the current alarmism is international deception and tax-grab. Readers may disagree and that is their choice. By the same token we are entitled to our opinion too. There are plenty of pro-global warming websites and readers are free to go where they choose without being told what to do and what to believe.
There are many articles to be found here on the website about how the moon influences and controls weather; but basically the same pulling force that hauls daily tides also hauls the air. The moon has no eyes or brain and so cannot work out the difference between land, water and air. Lunar gravitational forces must go through the air to reach the sea. Plus there is 10x more water in the air at any moment than there is in all the world's rivers, which in itself is equivalent to an ocean above our heads and a weight of 33 feet of water upon us all.
The easiest way to think of it is as if the tide at the beach did not stay at the surface water level but went right up into the sky. As well as in the oceans, there is a kingtide in the air around full and new moons. It has already been mentioned that weather balloons float higher on kingtide days and this has been long known by most meteorologists. There is also a kingtide in the land at these times by which larger earthquakes may be predictable if a series is currently occurring at a particular location. Every next-largest quake in Christchurch during 2011 occurred within the kingtide periods of February to June.
The model we use could be called a lunar/solar/magnetic one. The lunar component determines the timing of many weather events and the solar component governs varying intensities and magnitudes. Having said that there is much crossover in nature, and our science tries a little too much to neatly categorise at times, which bring confusion. The magnetic component describes the stress on the earth's crust and therefore also turbulence in air, land and sea, driven primarily by the land tide with its transference to ocean currents.
All these factors are cyclic and therefore patterned and predictable. The error enters when local factors take over to interrupt the lunar vector and events may be delayed or displaced, such as what happeneds with tropical cyclones or close perigees, when skewing may happen for a couple of days before the pattern re-asserts itself.
The solar force is less predictable than the moon and is chiefly governed by positions of planets, mainly the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, with neptune and Uranus also players. The sunspot cycle averaging 11 years can vary between 9-14 years. Two solar cycles of 23 years becomes more reliable. Droughts are a function of solar intensity and these are largely determined by combinations of positions of planets, whether perigees are close, whether lunar declinations are major or minor, and combinations of these. Jupiter's cycle is similar to that of the moon.
Temperatures are the domain of solar factors but are also somewhat subject to lunar declination because oceanic currents are controlled by the moon, and currents affect sea surface temperatures and larger systems like El Nino and La Nina. Because solar factors are more difficult to pattern accurately, temperatures are harder to get right than the event timing. But we can make fairly helpful guesses.
Back in January 2013 we had noticed that the closest perigee for this year was due to combine with southern declination in the last week of June, which could cause record high SSTs over the summer. It was predictable as a causal factor for summer heatwaves. If one combines the solar component of 11 years and the lunar of roughly 8-10 and 17-19 years, one can arrive at algorithms that yield a 9-11 year cycle turnabout. It is probably why regular forecasters often describe severe events as the worst, hottest, windiest etc "for a decade".
Particular planetary configurations bring drought conditions, including aphelia and perihelia e.g. of Jupiter. Previous years of this compliance have been 1821, 1833, 1845, 1856, 1868, 1880, 1882, 1904, 1916, 1928, 1940, 1951, 1963, 1975, 1987, 1999, and 2011, with a leeway of years on either side for build-up and cessation. This is exacerbated by factors like Jupiter/Saturn oppositions which can cause the monsoon season to fail. Examples of those years were 1892, 1951, and 2013. The years 2017-2020 bring the combinations of Jupiter/Saturn aphelia and conjunction, sunspot minimum and the phenomenon of Jupiter crossing between the Sun and Sagittarius, all rain deficiency factors. The Jupiter/Saturn conjunction spanning 2017-2022 will be an unusually close alignment with ramifications for farmers and investors. Drought during 2019-21 may affect most States, but a run of good wet years are expected to follow.
More on what predictions are
All weather forecasting is in the category of quantified opinions, like other inexact sciences such as outlook reports by economists, writings by political editors, investment recommendations by fiscal stockbrokers and accountants, turf tips in the racing industry, and the paid advice of lawyers, industrial consultants, architects, teachers and doctors. Like the aforementioned, weather forecasting is never intended to express certainties because forecasters do not claim to be gods. Predictions are part of our everyday life. We all make calculated predictions when we cross the road, before a rugby game, and when we enter a shop. Predictions and opinions are subjective and differ from person to person. Our weather products arise out of 40 years experience in studying weather, and since 1999 the penning of 35 almanacs in 4 countries, 19 of these having been for NZ and 7 for Australia. We have also written 6 other books on weather theory including Predicting Weather By The Moon, Moon and Weatherlore, The Lunar Code, The Weather Handbook, New Meteorological Techniques and How to Predict Earthquakes. Our consultancy has been used by Australia's biggest TV network, Ireland television, various government departments, chain store corporations in NZ, UK and Austraila, by event planners (e.g. for weddings), but most of all by the farmers of several countries.
Advertising Standards Authority
In NZ we have the Advertising Standards Authority, a government-associated agency (through the offices of Ombudsman and Commerce Commission), which monitors advertisements that might be construed as
making misleading claims about products. After recently considering then throwing out a trivial and petty complaint from a government earth-scientist the ASA has absolutely upheld
our right to advertise our services.
We regret that the complainant did not approach us first. If anyone takes issue with anything on this website.arising from a misunderstanding on their part or something on our part poorly worded, we would welcome that they first raise the matter with us and write to email@example.com detailing their concern. If it is within our power we will do our best to accommodate any and all complainants and make changes if appropriate and reasonable. Corrections by us would be easier and much faster than if a complainant had to await the outcome of any Advertising Standards Authority inquiry, which even then might not be upheld. In this case, perhaps irritatingly for the complainant, public funds were used up in the conduct of this inquiry that gave our website positive publicity reported on the front page of New Zealand's national newspaper and prominently in smaller regional newspapers. We were exonerated from any accusation of wrong-doing and so the exercise gave our service much free national publicity, the example also of debate on national radio. It was advertsing worth thousands of dollars that we could never afford ourselves.
We are a small but dedicated team of five who take our work standards very seriously, also our role in the community. For example all longrange
information for community events are provided free so that families with small children can be better advised about what open-air weather to expect. Our lomgrange forecasts are made in good faith with no intention to deceive,
mislead, antagonise or disrespect others and their opinions, whilst retaining our democratic right to express those opinions. We are also as transparent as possible with our methods and assist where all we can. In that regard, we do not differ from any other small business in the marketplace. Input from the public is always valued and makes us better at what we do.
Provisions of Fair Trading Act and Consumer Guarantees Act
We trade as Ken Ring Ltd and sell forecasts as opinion-based products, in the same manner as meteorological reports issued by NZ Metservice, geological reports and recommendations sold by geologists, snow reports issued and sold by ski-field websites, travel advice sold in information packages, political commentaries, sport, fitness and nutrition expertise, economic and marketing reports, legal or medical advice and reports, stockbroker recommendations or advice, financial banking and investment advice, tips in the racing industry, fishing, advertising and marketing advice, and farm and agronomy advisery services. Many differing types of consultancies are part of the fabric of the business community and we regard ourselves as equal to any other consultancy in style and in the common intent to supply requested information deemed by clientele as necessary or helpful to their business operations.
Clients engage with consultants of their choice with the full knowledge of what they can expect to receive for their investment. Information carries a monetary value because time and resources are involved in calculations and the preparation of report packages. Our methodology is transparent and has already been well described. The forecasts carry a degree of error because weather science, like medicine is not exact. We wish to comply with provisions of the Acts and we warn customers that like any other weather forecasters we can be wrong at times, for reasons that are not always known.
Other inexact sciences in the same category are medicine and geology. Clients are invited to engage with our products in the full knowledge that they are based on ancient techniques of longrange weather prediction used for hundreds of years in many cultures of the world, and still in use today. There should not be an expectancy to receive the type of forecast or forecast report that the NZ Metservice provides. We do not set out to inform of exact times of weather events within 24 hours as we own no satellites, and we recommend clients who have that requirement to other meteorological agencies. Our expertise is longrange - beyond a month ahead.
There are no hidden costs and charges are clearly laid out beforehand. Payment is rewarded with ordered products fitting the description of what has been promised. No guarantee of accuracy is promised. Consumers have the right to withdraw from a transaction until actually ordering. No refund is possible after a sale, because the client already has the product.
Reports, forecasts etc are the intellectual property of Ken Ring Ltd, which like the contents of a book or article are automatically covered by international copyright and cannot be freely shared.
In effect, the client purchases the right to read and act on the material received but not to onsell it nor give it to others not employed by the client/purchaser. If there are complaints or queries about any of our products or services please feel free to email our team on
and we will do our best to assist you if we can.
We welcome suggestions for new products and comments or appraisals, as well as any feedback for reports delivered. Please email any ideas in this regard to
Thanks for visiting us at Predict Weather
Ken Ring and team