Is 20 March significant?
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24, 2011
This article is a follow-on from the prediction of http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=334&type=home
please read this first if you haven't already
We think this recent earthquake sequence has a timeline. It started last September and should finish after April. By June, the earthquake frequency in the region should be moving back to its normal non-threatening pattern.
"Perigee" means moon closest to earth for the month. We have seen the 4 September 7.1 event (new moon+second closest perigee) of 648 kilotons, followed by 7 October (new moon+perigee#6) which brought (8th) the next biggest event, two 4+ jolts around 6.30am totalling 96 metric tons. The following month, on 4-6 November, new moon in perigee brought on 7th at just before 3am, the next biggest aftershock of 118 tonnes. The next month? Perigee was 26-27 December, as perigeal new moon changed to perigeal full moon. On 26 December came the next biggest jolt since the last, a month ago; a 4.9mag king-hit of 346 tons. With 20 January's full moon+perigee, came the next biggest earthquake to hit Christchurch, a 5.1mag event.
It has meant that since September, every perigee has brought successive earthquakes that were the biggest since the last biggest, starting with new moons and swapping to full moons. With 6 successive monthly biggest events, equally spaced at 4-week intervals, all coming right on kingtide times, all hitting the Christchurch region, the pattern is obvious. And the next is the 20 March closest-perigee for the year, + full moon. The next (and last) powerful perigeal full moon is 18 April.
In 2009 the closest perigee for that year + full moon probably triggered the Te Anau earthquake. The closest perigee for 2010 was 30 January. Within the few days following came a 2.9 mag only 10 km north of Hanmer Springs 3kms deep, two 4.5-mag earthquakes in Hawkes Bay, and Fiordland received a mighty 5.1-mag shock 40 km west of Milford Sound that was felt throughout Fiordland and Otago. There were others too, within the week to follow, in Taupo, Manawatu and Bay of Plenty. These events of 2009 and 2010 perhaps may be seen as an early signal that the South Island Alpine Fault region was coming into line for a rough sequence soon to follow.
That the moon+perigee are on the same day makes it even more gravitationally significant. Perigee always magnifies the gravitational pull of moon, especially when the moon is full. The moon will be 356577kms away on March 19, and this will be the closest it has come to Earth since 12 Dec 2008 (some say since 1992 as distances vary around the earth) and won't be as close again until 14 Nov 2016. The 19-21st of March will be a potent date for an extreme event.
Days of potential increase in activity
20, 21 March;
Reason for suggesting the April dates: Full moon=18th, perigee (fourth closest for year)=17th, crossing equator=16th. This is the last potential date in the sequence. The interval has roughly the same potency as the February full moon period of 18th-25th. But it does not mean a similar sized 6.3-mag will necessarily occur, the reader must be the judge. Perhaps basic stocks and survival preparations should not be finally eased until after Easter weekend.
The Alpine Fault itself seems to be fairly inactive at the moment. However, as we have said, it could be anywhere in NZ, or it may not even happen at all. Whilst the timing mat better be calculated, there are many wild cards. One is always the depth, even if one was to arrive on time. Recent earthquakes have been very shallow, within 10-12kms of the ground level, and these bring the most damage. Let us hope nothing happens around 19-20 March or 18 April. The 18 April could be a problem*, as some significant rain is expected within a 3-day window, there will still be kingtides in the neighborhood from the full moon+perigee, and due to the recent slumping of many buildings water levels are now higher and some areas may now be more flood-prone than before.
As there is a pattern between September and now, extreme events to not eventuate would break what is, for the locality, a fairly solid 6-month-old and some might say predictable sequence. Given what we know, there is nothing to indicate to us why the now-extended pattern of extreme events, each evenly spaced about a month apart, should not continue for at least one more month, and quite possibly two.
We repeat, it may not happen. We hope it won't. We are not always correct and no one has all the answers. We apologise if these lines in any way lead to unnecessary stress and tension. That has not been our intention. Better that there was warning and it didn't happen, than it catches a whole population by surprise and takes unnecessary lives that could have been saved if people were just slightly more mindful of being in a safer place around the risky days. If a pattern can be seen then it can settle your mind more.
on 16 April 1974, which was about 2x19-yr moon cycles ago, Christchurch received a major Easter flood, with 124mm of rain falling in 24 hours. In the bus depot water reached to half a metre deep, about a foot deep in Colombo St near Smith City, and a metre deep either side of the Colombo Overbridge. All of South New Brighton was heavily flooded. There are now hundreds of low floor buildings, both residential and commercial, sited over these flood-prone areas.
PLEASE STOCK UP ON BASICS!!
HELP OTHERS TO DO THE SAME!!
From Predict Weather Facebook page:
If people realise you are just saying that it is possible a quake could occur (as a warning), then at least people can be prepared like my parents were for the week of 18 - 25th of Feb. I thank you again for your blog and tweets about that. My Mum skipped work that week - and luckily she is still here as a result....her work building and some colleagues aren't :-
I can only thank God that Ken provided us with sufficient warning. Thanks to him, we had started to prepare for this, purchasing bottled water and non-perishable food supplies. With two children to look after, this foresight has helped us through a very difficult time. Irrespective if he is going to be correct again in March, having someone provide dates to be on the look out for, is a great comfort. I had even slightly doubted his prediction, and was in fact looking it up on the internet when the quake struck. This has certainly proven to me, that I will not be a disbeliever. No scientist is prepared to stick their necks and give definite dates, purely because they do not know. Keep at it Ken, you were a geniune life saver to this Christchurch household.
Hey Ken because of you I was prepared for this one....On behalf of my daughter and myself, Thank you so much....I stil have no power, water or toilet, but I have food, camping gear and water. I finished my kit off the week before the earthquake. I don't care what people say, I think your a fantastic man and ever since the sept 4 I have followed you. Hope you are well....Thank you so much xx
Thanks for your warnings Ken. I live in Christchurch and have been reading your web site since 4th September. Last weekend, due to your predictions I went out and stocked up on water and emergency items (just in case) and boy was I glad I did. We are already getting our plans together for 20th March (just in case ag...ain). Knowledge is power, I just pray that you are wrong this time
My sister was shopping Northwood supermarket last week and as she was standing in line a group of total strangers starting chattinng and you were there topic. Everyone of those total strangers were there stocking up food, water etc and were... on red alert BECAUSE of you .Only One woman in another line glared at them but HOW proud you must feel you had all these people prepared and in my eyes Knowledge helps us get thru. Jen left the shop rang me straight away total strangers all sharing there stories and how much they trusted and believed in your guidance. Thank you Ken
We have had an emergency kit for sometime. I am a firefighter so once I have my family sorted and safe I will not be around to help them in a disaster in our town (Tapanui, west Otago). With doing this its piece of mind for my partner and kids. I know that the warnings you give may not happen but at least we can read your info and do what we think is needed. My partner is well known in town for her extensive kit and has encouraged others to make there own. This will make our job (NZFS) alot easier if and when the time comes.