Cook Strait earthquakes

(pic thanks to Carolyn Egan of weathersage@yahoogroups.com  using Solar Maps 4.0.2
Created by Esoteric Technologies Pty Ltd < http://www.esotech.com.au/ >Chart: Full Moon Jul 22 2013, Lines:Culminate/Anticulminate/Rise/Set
Map Description:NZ Chart: Full Moon Jul 22 2013           
Lines:Culminate/Anticulminate/Rise/Set
Map Description:NZ)

This present lot of shaking is also accompanying an unusually high air pressure rise, which equates to higher land tides than usual, and an air pressure rise is a sign to start an earthquake watch. A sudden rise occurred from the 15th - 16th, with a maintained high value until the 20th. The first Seddon shake was a 5.5mag on 19 July.

Below is the air pressure chart for Wellington for the month so far, from wunderground.com. The barometric pressure works in synch with the tides because the air and sea are one system. In turn, the seatide is the inverse of the land tide (earth tide) beneath the waves. Therefore a barometric chart is virtually a look at what the land is doing.

Nromally the land lifts and falls again by 20cms per day in NZ. In Australia it is 50cms per day. Normally we don't notice this because there is nothing to compare it against. At the moon's perigee times the three tides, land, sea and air, reach greater heights. Here we can see a maintained high land tide, meaning that beneath our feet the land is currently higher. It is gradually dropping.

A good example of the way the land tide works can be seen in the (23 July) 5.2mag shake near Blenheim. The time was 10.47am, exactly the time of low tide at the nearest coast. Low tide in the water is the direct result and part of the high tide in the land. Both the 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 shakes also occurred just as the sea was coming up to low tide at Lyttelton.

Of course not every earthquake occurs at this time, nor does this time always create earthquakes. In fact statistically most shakes occur around dawn or dusk, because most accompany new and full moons, and these are times the moon is on the horizon pulling laterally on land. For example spilling a water-filled bucket by pulling it over with a rope tied to the handle would be facilitated if the rope was hauled from the side.

The influence of Jupiter is that it is the largest planet in the solar system and contributes to tidal forces on the sun, which in turn affect the electormagnetic field around the earth. Again in turn, the stress on our field causes stress within the earth. Sunspots have been unusually high, peaking on 19 July at 112, with a solar wind factor peaking at 590km/sec.(ref: http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=20&month=07&year=2013)

The influence of Mars is that it is an inner planet whose orbit combines gravitationally with earth. This is not astrology as some skeptics think of it, this is purely about gravitational forces influencing other gravitational forces. Not for nothing was Mars known for thousands of years as 'the planet of action'. These factors are not recognised by mainstream geology, but would have been well known by ancient astrologers who were our original astronomers.

There is nothing about the moon, the sun, planets, orbits, gravity, cycles and electromagnetism that is not rock solid science as taught in universities under various disciplines. However astronomers nowadays have channeled their activities around telescope gazing, and seem unconcerned about gravitational impacts of planetary bodies upon each other and on Earth.

The moon has the greatest gravitational pull on our planet, being twice that of the sun because of the moon's closer proximity, but it is not something our earth scientists now choose to consider. Lunar orbit cycles are the cycles in all of nature, and geologists still recognise cycles as regards to ice ages and interglacials.

The moon's total cycle including all subcycles is about 17-20 years. A half cycle is about 8-9 years. The last big shake in the central NZ area was in 2005, also in the Cook Strait. In meteorology trends can also repeat about every 9 years. For the last shake to have been in the 2004-5 timeframe gives even more credence to there being a lunar component

For reasons not explained earth scientists seem to have decided that earthquakes are cycle-exempt, just as meteorologists have decided that weather is also cycles-exempt. This is not the case in eastern and Asian countries. Now in the west all natural events are considered one-offs and unpredictable. It may simply have something to do with where the funding is.

We do beg to differ, and included this below table of earthquake risk periods in our July newsletter, sent out last month to our 9000 members. It shows the days of increased likelihoods of seismic activity.

Purple indicates dates to take special note of, and bold purple even more special watch. The figures are potentials for maximum magnitudes and are not predictions of certainties.

Earthquakes cannot be pinpointed to exact location yet, but the opinions expressed by us may help any who may be interested in this subject. It may seem new to those reading this for the first time, but science must always be openminded to new ideas.

Full moon night is 22 July but perigee was in the evening of 21 July (UDT) which is 8.28am 22 July (LT). The largest shake was the 6.5mag at 5.13pm on 21 July. There is now a lessened danger until the 28th. For the key to the abbreviations one can register to receive our free monthly newsletter on http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Register.aspx

The question is often asked, why should the moon only affect NZ? The answer is that other countries are indeed also affected in the same time frame, because the whole earth rotates one whole revolution beneath the moon every 24 hours. Due to the land tide there is virtually an earthquake everywhere every day, but we are mostly interested only in the big ones.

The present series of world earthquakes registering above 5M began with the 5.9M in Southern Peru. It was followed by a 5.5M in the Kermadecs and a 5.5M in Honshu Japan on 20 July, a 5.5M in Papua Indonesia on 21 July ,a 5.6M and 5.9M in Ganshu China and a 6.1M earthquake in South Africa in the past 24 hours. There is probably more to come internationally.

So the current activity is not over yet, as we endure the unusually close perigee (moon third closest to Earth for the entire year ), full moon and kingtide between 22nd-24th. The orbits of Mars and Jupiter cross each other on 22 July, then stay close until three degrees of separation at the end of July. We might recall that on 4 September 2010 the moon was second closest to earth for that year.

The greatest magnitude shakes are usually before and after the kingtide, so some shaking may continue for more days yet. Seddon sits beside the Wairau Trench opening onto Cook Strait and is now the focus as shake clusters in the recent two years have been moving away from Christchurch and proceeding north as predicted by this website back in 2011. The Marlborough-Wairarapa region is the next to start getting the activity of a regular nature.

Another question often asked is, does this mean the Alpine Fault is the next to go? The simple answer is no. The Alpine Fault moves through a greater vertical range during any single day due to a larger land tide there, brought about because of the larger land mass. Some geologists have noted this larger fluctuation and turned it into alarmism. Because they do not recognise the moon-based land tide, they think the greater Alpine movement can only mean it is always getting ready to blow.

But it is a misread. Any fault is just an old scar from a previous earthquake series. It is the point in the crust of least resistance when internal pressure is released. A 20,000mph wind through solid granite with the power to move a city the size of Christchurch by a metre or a country the size of Japan by 3 metres, maintaining its force, speed and power through several thousand kms of soilid earth, is going to burst through wherever it likes. It is hardly going to bother, at that tremendous speed and force, fishing around in the dark under the earth for an old escape route.

Earthquakes cause faults, not faults cause earthquakes. A fault is an old scar on the landscape. That's the LAND scape. Some earthquakes come from 400kms down, but faults are in hills above the ground. So how can an earthquake work its way down from being caused by a fault, then work its way up again to cause damage above the ground? How could a volcano go down first when we were taught at school that heat can only go up? As any doctor will confirm, accidents cause scars, scars don't initiate accidents.

But seismologists are suggesting these quakes are coming from a new fault near Wellington they have not mapped before. http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/8950273/Swarm-could-trigger-capital-fault .  Didn't we hear the same claim after the Christchurch earthquakes, that their two largest shakes came from unknown or new and unmapped faults?

Only residents of a region can describe how scary it is, but unless there are high and old stone buildings around and in need of repair, there may be relatively little personal danger, as fatalities have been relatively rare in our earthquake history considering NZ gets about 15,000 per year which is an average of over 40 per day.

On the subject of tsumanis, they are unlikely to affect NZ. In all our settlement history there have been 2 million recorded earthquakes but only 4 tsunami scares which did not eventuate in significant damage or loss of life  Tsunamis that can affect us must come from Chile, some 12 hours away. Tsunami alarms systems are a feel-good installation and arguably a waste of public funds when we have e.g. hospitals that are short-staffed because of scarcity of resources.

NZ is protected by a relatively shallow shelf extending east 200 miles from Wairarapa and about 5 times that eastwards from Christchurch, unlike Japan which backs straight onto the Pacific, the deepest ocean in the world. And after nearly 700 shakes over the past few days in Cook Strait, some very large by international standards, there has been not one tsunami scare for Wellington. Earthquakes for tsunami consideration have to be at least 7M, and shakes of that size somewhere in NZ happen only once every 12 or 23-24 years.

Can earthquakes be predicted?  Some may recall the warning tweets we sent out before each largest shake in the recent Christchurch series in 2010 and 2011. https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/23856729753 (7 Sept. 2010 warning, re 22 Feb. shake)
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/36763786807345152 (14 Feb 2011, re 22 Feb. shake)
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/40745600471412736 (25 Feb. 2011, re 20 March shake)
https://twitter.com/kenringweather/status/82445427944849408 (re 13 June shake)
http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=346&type=home (scroll down to screenshot of 7-intensity shake in Christchurch on 20 March 2011)

Was the current series predicted? The reader may be the judge. Is it time for national alarm? Not really, as clusters of heightened earthquake activity are quite normal for NZ when the moon cycles peak together as they are doing right now. Extra turbulence generates disturbances in land, air and sea. Even Ireland, currently undergoing its hottest summer since many can remember, received some rain yesterday.

Much of the information here has been available for the past year and clusters of heightened earthquake activity are quite normal for NZ when moon cycles peak together. But the old science must make way for the new. The so-called dumb wild animals, insects, fish, birds and household pets can all detect earthquakes with ease well beforehand. So with today’s advanced technology, we have to wonder why that seems to be so difficult for our so-called master race.

For more information email ken@predictweather.com