Weather Almanac for Ireland 2016

SUNDAY DECEMBER 27, 2015

Our book for weather predictions over 2016 for the whole of Ireland and for each county is now available. Ii includes daily estimations of rain, sunshine, temperatures, frosts, winds, snow dates, gardening, fishing, with tables, graphs and much more, including the theory of the method and the expectations for the next few years. Ideal Christmas gift.

The Ireland almanacs have been running since 2010. Met Eireann has described us as "a thorn in our side" and RTE's Ms Cusack has campaigned to dissuade the public from us. Unless we were an accurate alternative it is hard to see why they would go to such trouble. On the other hand, we have no problem with Met Eireann - they are brilliant at short-range. In a Christian democracy there is room for all and no one has all the answers. Mainstream meteorology goes 2-3 days ahead, whereas we can calculate ahead for at least 20 years, using lunar and solar orbits. We do not feel we are in any competition. Quite simply, farmers desire information about weather trends for several months ahead. Longrange techniques were used in ancient weather calculators like Knowth and New Grange in Ireland, and Stonehenge. It is highly likely that our work is in line with Ireland's archaeological past.

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May dries up after the 22nd and that extends until 3 June. That two week interval is likely to be the best weather of the summer, and the last week in May may be one of the sunniest spells of the year. Compared with the average, June is wetter, and cloudier, with cooler maxima, but average minima, and may be a calm month for wind. July is is likely to be again wetter and cloudier, with cooler maxima but slightly warmer minima. There is a risk of flooding in the first week after which the country may be dry for about a week (10th-17th). August starts wet but overall may be drier, sunnier and warmer with the warmest day of the year (around 24°) at or near the 18th. The third week is expected to be the driest. August may be the warmest month overall, especially around 18th-21st although temps are unlikely to get above 25°. September is overall likely to be a wetter than average month, the second sunniest month of the year, and the second warmest month. Watch for rivers rising around the 20th. For October the third week is the driest. November will not be pleasant, with much wind and rain expected.

2016 is expected to be a wetter year than 2017, with rain for 2018 in the middle position. Over the next three years 2016 is likely to be the wettest for Central counties. Northern counties may find 2016 the driest for them. West counties may find 2016 their wettest year and for the east 2018 is the wettest, with 2017 the driest. 2018 may be the best year for overall sunshine amounts, with 2016 the cloudiest, and 2017 in the middle position. For temperatures, 2016 is cooler than last year but farmers can look forward to 2017 being warmer overall.

In Ireland overall, we estimate that this will be a slightly wetter although sunnier year with warmer than average daytime temperatures. The winter just gone was predicted to be wet. In the last two almanacs (2014 and 2015) we pointed out that a cold 2015/16 winter was not shown in the cycles. Cold winters are in roughly 9-yr cycles and their multiples, e.g. 1890, 1962/63, 1978-79, 2000/01 and 2009/10. So the next severe winter may not be before 2020. Therefore 2016 was always going to be mild, and mild winters will always be wet. Consider the opposite - colder air creates higher pressure systems because colder air is heavier. High pressure systems bring dry weather. Warmer winter air feeds clouds, which must fall as rain.

Using solar cycles we can also work out which years will deliver warm summers. The sun cycles are about every 11-12 and 22-23 years. As an example, 1995 was a warm summer, therefore the next similar summer with long dry periods may be 2018. This is because 1995+23=2018, and also 2006 +12=2018. So until then, 2016 and 2017 are more likely to be typically mild summers with occasional dry spells but nothing spectacular. This is not rocket science, and is purely about cycles, something that anyone can prove this for themselves. Only the sun and moon are involved. There is no need to be alarmed about El Nino, global warming, climate change or the alarmists' claim that the weather is all bizarre and all over the place which means that the planet is grinding to a halt. Nothing could be further from the truth - it has all happened before, and everything in nature, including patterns of weather is subject to cycles. Weather is the tide of the atmosphere, and tides answer to the moon, the orbits of which are predictable well in advance.

Longrange forecasting is the use of cycle information. The winter just gone was not exceptionally warm or cold and would have reminded some of 1991-92, which was just like 1982-83, and if one wants to go all the way back,1868/69. Spring brings average rain and temperatures, but less sunshine than the norm over the whole country, and it may be warmer overall in Connaught. In terms of wind, expect a calm spring and summer, then a breezy autumn. Summer brings average rain and temperatures, and under average sunshine hours, and it may be cooler overall in Ulster and average-to-cooler in Leinster. Autumn may be warmer for all counties, sunnier, and with rain within average range. .

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