The Back Story.

In New Zealand, Christchurch suffered a huge 7+mag earthquake on 4 September 2010.  Three days later, on 7 September, 2010,  government geologists issued a press statement saying destructive Christchurch earthquakes "would not repeat for another 500-600 years"*.
I had concern because my team's calculations showed that although the cluster of Christchurch earthquakes would die down after November 2010, they would restart with renewed vigour around February 2011. Around then, and for about a month, the Moon would be at its shortest earth-moon distance for 19 years. Therefore earthquakes were anticipated to arrive then, in prone areas all around the world, including Christchurch (the Japanese tsunami earthquake of 11 March 2011 happened in this small time frame), because it was calculated that Christchurch would still be in the perigee line of sight.

The public needed to have this information so they could be prepared. Therefore that same day, 7 September 2010,  the first warning went out about more destructive earthquakes coming to the Christchurch region in around 6 months time(+/- a month). There was no intention to cause more anxiety - just the opposite.

Our Twitter account is: https://twitter.com/kenringweather

The tweets were

Tweet of 7 Sept 2010

Tweet of 14 February 2011

I posted the second tweet a week before the 22 February 2011, so that people could choose to stay away from the CBD for a few days.  The  tweet warnings were supported, with scientific reasons, by articles on  www.predictweather.com.

The NZ government reacted adversely, saying that predicting was irresponsible.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nick-smith-ken-ring-offensive-should-be-held-account-ck-88242

The Minister cited the Incitement to Riot Act, although he seemed unaware that this particular Act was repealed in 1987. Please see Riot Act.  (The minister's threats are still current, they have not been rescinded). The Chief Science Advisor, then also stepped into the fray, refer:

Sir Peter Gluckman

After being informed by TV3 that 1500 people had requested my appearance on interview with the popular show 'Campbell Live', a live (at my insistence) interview was held on 28 February 2011. The interview was described afterwards as a trainwreck. Refer:

John Campbell interview

At first criticized as being abusive to an invited guest, the interview was first pulled from the internet, then reinstated after public protests. That night over 2000 complaints were received at TV3. Then the interview itself became news, went viral and was re-broadcast the next day on BBC and Fox news.

The next day host John Campbell privately rang me at 7am, as he explained, on instruction from his network, and invited me back onto his programme that evening. I asked if he would consider reversing the untruths he had told the nation (namely that there had been no international studies linking the moon to earthquakes when there were many such studies, as listed on my website, and certainly known to him because I had already sent the studio the links - at their request), but Campbell refused. So I said until more honesty and integrity was demonstrated by him and/or his network, there would be no point in my going back in front of his cameras for another round of bullying.

It had been a Claytons apology. John Campbell spent each night for the rest of that week criticizing me on air and interviewing people who were prepared to diss me (mainly scientists), without my opportunity to reply.  It was a set-up - there was no way I was going to get any fair hearing. Yet all I had ever wanted to do was to provide information about how to predict earthquake timings, with a method that I thought that I had demonstrated could be effective, and I was prepared to share the method with anyone who wished to take advantage of it. Instead I was criticised for manipulating the media, to raise my own profile.

It was also claimed that I was doing it for money. But earthquake prediction has never constituted any part of my income. I have not earned even one cent from the exercise. I have done it purely to be helpful. To not warn when one perceives a looming danger to human life, would be unthinkable.

Public Reaction

Science support

Then the New Zealand public were surprised to be told that geologists knew the fatal earthquake of 22 February was coming but did not warn because they did not wish to cause alarm. Adverse public reaction followed, such that if geologists could indeed predict earthquakes then giving such warnings is what scientists were being paid to do. But geologists went silent on further earthquake activity and times.

My next website and twitter warning had been that the next large shake would be on 20 March 2011. Geologists, politicians and radio personalities met on the Port Hills. Refer:

Skeptics Lunch,

It was a PR stunt by skeptics, a media beat-up and a denial, saying that any quake coming that day was going to be unlikely. It seemed that geologists who had previously claimed that earthquakes cannot be predicted, had suddenly found the ability to predict they would not arrive on a certain day.

Actually, the 20th turned out to be very seismically active, with no less than 46 events occurring, including three above 4-mag shakes in Twizel at 1.30pm. More significantly, the largest earthquake of the day and the third largest in the whole Christchurch series, listed by GNS as one of intensity-7, hit Christchurch that evening at 9.47pm. It was violent enough to destroy the house of Deputy Head Geologist Dr Mark Quigley, who had been one of the keynote speakers at the earlier lunch event. Refer:

7-intensity; 20 March 2011

That earthquake was estimated by USGS to be 6-6.9mag. It was widely reported that it felt as big or bigger than any of the others, but anyway, most unsound buildings had already fallen. GNS reported the event as only a 5.1mag, describing it as 'not Ken Ring's earthquake'.

__________________

There was much structural strain on the Christchurch community, and after the Campbell Live debacle, that station's ratings went through the roof. It prompted TV1 and other networks to seek interviews, as well as magazines, Sunday newspapers etc. The NBR and Herald-on-Sunday both offered me editorials. Two women's magazines, New Idea and Womens Weekly, offered me 3-figure sums for interviews. Not wishing to be seen to be making money from a disaster, I said yes to the interviews but only if the money went to the Christchurch Red Cross and if the magazines were prepared to publicly acknowledge that, but they both refused.

So not wishing to be used in what was a ratings war, I refused any further media comment until 12 July 2011, with TV1's Mark Sainsbury, which was four months down the track and when I had previously estimated that 70-90% of the earthquake cluster would be over anyway.

I felt that there had been no way the media would allow me to present my side. That did not stop the media, and public comments attributed to me between 28 February 2011 and 12 July 2011 were pure journalistic fiction. They had me hiding in a secret location (I was in Gore raising money for the CRC by speaking and donating proceeds of books). I was supposed to be in Spain, in Australia, getting death threats; all media nonsense. In fact, between September 2010 and July 2011 there had been only the one interview, that with John Campbell. The public should know that throughout those 10 months, I was on the airwaves for less than 10 minutes, and even for that, the interviewer Campbell had done most of the talking. There was a widespread claim that I was scaremongering - but the media had created the furore and it was all about ratings. The misery of the earthquakes was mercilessly milked, especially by TV3. Every night viewers had to re-endure the worst scenes of the tragedy, giving the impression the quakes were still happening.

To avoid negative exposure and to answer growing public requests for information, I decided to make these free newsletters available, to present alternative viewpoints about earthquakes, Moon events and theories, weather-related subjects like El Nino and global warming etc, coming extreme events for three countries and our products.  For Australia, NZ and Ireland we needed somewhere to put out our next-month outlooks.

The newsletters listed are from February 2012 to present day, with selected chapter headings. To receive the free newsletter monthly in your own Inbox, please click:

Register to receive newsletter

Subscription: We like to keep the newsletters short but still have more information. Therefore we also have a nominal subscription (around $8 per month- basically to cover admin costs), which enables access to free extensions of what would be in the newsletter,. To subscribe to gain free access to this range of other files of monthly lookaheads, including rain distribution maps, sets of monthly isobaric charts and moon, tide and fishing information, click http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Subscriptions.aspx  then click where it says "Why subscribe" 

To date we have 13,000 registrants.

Back issues of newsletters

 

February 2012

Wellington earthquake 2015-16

Wellington and Picton earthquakes history

23-24 yr cycle

 

 

March 2012

Titanic – perigee involved?

Perigee frequency

Earthquake monitor system

Air pressures, tide heights, alignments

 

 

April 2012

Earthquake planet frequency

Planet tipping over

Order of earthquakes

Why 2 tides per day

CO2 a pollutant

Traditional earthquake myths exposed

Can we affect the weather?

Planting by the moon - theory

 

 

May 2012

Can we affect the weather?

Seismicity of NZ

 

 

June 2012

News for investors

 

 

July 2012

Oil not running out

Air tide

Financial cycles

 

 

August 2012

Eclipse in November

Eruptions

Moon Perigee, Earth Tides and Tectonic Activity

Tutorial Article: Moon Notes

A Review: Above 5mag Earthquakes in NZ

Years of Largest Shakes

 

 

September 2012

What Climate Change?

 

 

October 2012

Summer Outlook for NZ

ECLIPSE: Dark Morning on 14 November

 

 

December 2012

Will there be an earthquake on 13th?

Possible seismic activity for 7-9 and 13-14 December

Perigee

Planetary influences

 

 

February 2013

Long runs of fine weather over for the north?

 

 

April 2013

Drought talk

Summary of 2013 months

 

 

May 2013

Snow notes

Rest of 2013

Next summer - will there be a drought? (No)

Value of science

When does extreme become ‘more extreme’?

Big dry in eastern Australia

60-year cycles

 

 

June 2013

For the fisherman fishing phase

What goes around

Earthquake theory questioned

 

 

July 2013

Drought next year in Northland?

Depends what you mean by drought.

 

 

August 2013

Cook Straitearthquakes

The Big One

The near Future? Should we worry?

Copernicus, please come back

Event diary

 

 

September 2013

Queenslandinterview

 

 

October 2013

Climate Changers Dancing in the Streets

Climate Change - the evidence they don't want people to see

 

 

November 2013

Drought notes for New Zealand

Bush fires in NSW

Ireland’s coming winter

UKlongrange

Is it or isn’t it? (equinox winds)

Bush fires in NSW

Looking after – the planet?

 

 

December 2013

Prepare For A Hot Summer

Plenty Of Oil

Notes About Sunspot Cycle 24

 

 

January 2014

2014 for Australia

2014 for NZ

2014 for Ireland

Earthquakes not our main concern

 

 

February 2014

Queenslandcyclone season

Whales, Earthquakes and the Moon

Moon and Earthquakes?

Does the Moon Contribute to Strandings

Barometer

Global Warmers Glad To See The Back of 2013

 

 

March 2014

First cold for Christchurch

Christchurcha water city

El Nino this year? Probably not

You can’t keep a good moon down

Complaint not upheld

 

 

April 2014

What You May Not Know About Easter

 

 

May 2014

Christchurchthis winter

Why the 1959 drought may return around 2019

 

 

June 2014

Our Inconstant Dwarf

Wives tales and weather

 

 

July 2014

Why What Is In The Air Cannot Affect Weather

Links To Other Astrometeorologists

Earth, Sun and Mercury

Analysing June earthquake activity

 

 

September 2014

New almanacs

Dancing with the stars

Close match

2015 for NZ

 

 

October 2014

Opinion: Dirty Science

 

November 2014

Monsoons and cyclones

 

December 2014  

 

January 2015

 

February 2015

 

March 2015

 

April 2015

 

May 2015

 

Mid May 2015

 

June 2015

mid June 2015

July 2015

mid July