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NZ, a look ahead

Although the country is still in spring, we might look ahead at this stage at the summer months and note what weather they might bring.

From now until the end of the year is wetter than average for both islands, and the South Island is wetter in December.

The southern hydrolake levels which look good until the end of the year, may receive little further rain in the new year, which may force restrictions on the use of water and raise power prices in late summer.

November brings rain at the start and in the second half for much of the North Island, especially in Wellington towards the end of the month. In the South Island, too, a run of more than 4 days of settled weather diminishes after the 16^th.

In December most of the rain for the country is in the second half, with very wet final days for the year in Coromandel and Christchurch. In the second week of December, Queenstown may get a downpour, the heaviest for that month. Christmas Day and Boxing Day look fine and clear for all.

The first half of January is relatively dry for the North Island, with heavy rain arriving in the second half. With many places getting more than a week’s fine weather, heavy rain is not far off for most places in the South Island, even though it is drier than average.

For Cape Reinga, in February, flooding may occur and washouts due to heavy rain systems around the third or fourth week and reaching Auckland for the southern declination a few days later and apart from rain in the lower half during the first 10 days, it is mostly a drier than average month for the island. For the South Island, apart from the west and south, there is very little heavy rain expected in February.

The absence of powerful perigees over the coming months suggest that no lasting storms or tropical low systems, such as we have seen with Gabrielle in the past, can be expected, to bring heavy flooding events. But that does not rule out extreme events in some places due to other factors.

Overall, watch out for the northern and southern declination times, which should bring deterioration in weather, especially if they accompany perigees. Examples may be the coastline of the east side of Coromandel, around the second week of January, and the last week in March in Auckland, which are both around the date of a southern declination.

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1-9-24

NZ is in no imminent danger, except for the incessant in-your-face geologists having their usual group meltdown.

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Hurricane threat greater next month in US

For those hurricane watchers in the United States, the current tropical cyclone Debbie at present making for landfall in Florida should once again peter out, once it hits the Florida coast. It continues our prediction that this year few hurricanes, if any, may severely impact the US.

This is not to say that no wind or rain damage may happen to various coastal cities, but it is a question of scale, and we are talking about full-blown hurricane activity that has devastating consequences.

However, looking ahead, the early September period may bring more hurricane-type activity than August, because the new moon is on 3 September and the lunar equinox is on 5 September. This month there is a week between them, but next month this changes to two days. As well, the lunar perigee is gradually becoming more powerful. This will significantly increase wind strength and direction but may still be less than the US meteorological media are suggesting, when they say it will be a heavy hurricane year. We remind you that we are still edging toward the El Ninos, which put the brake on cyclones.

According to Alan Watts, El Niño’s are a natural phenomenon and of little concern. El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean are natural patterns that have been going on for millions of years. El Niño events in the 21st century have indeed had some strong warming spikes, but arguably not in the past 50 years. 

But as the moon is regular, and so the lunar declination cycle, of which the El Nino episodes are a regular function, we averagely can expect to experience two El Ninos per decade. At the moment, we are in a hurricane-quiet period. The in-between phases, formerly known as the Trade Winds, reach a peak known as La Nina, are more hurricane-rich. 

There was a weak El Nino near the end of 2020, before dropping back to neutral. Currently, the ENSO differential scale has moved from neutral to the edge of the El Nino range; still technically neutral. It is not expected to shift until 2026.

As for New Zealand, fine weather is due to end soon after this coming weekend, with maximum rain occurring just after the midmonth.

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Are the Olympics an expensive mistake?

They could not prevent the rain during the opening ceremony, despite the claims of weather control. Then they staged the disgusting pornographic display that has driven away Christians and Muslims alike, with the Last Supper depicted as a gay drag event, and consequently the restaurants and cafes have been making no money with empty streets. Tourists have simply appeared to have stayed away. People seem to have checked out of hotels because the Olympics has gone one hundred percent cashless for products and services that are exclusively via QR code. Whilst the media has covered all the sports and given the impression of good crowds, nevertheless the dodgy weather and real story is yet to be told. In the women’s boxing, Italy’s Angela Carini lasted just 46 seconds against Algeria’s male component Imane Khelif. She stated afterwards, “I have never been hit so hard in my life.” Women's sports is now in total jeopardy and the whole Olympic concept is fast becoming a mess. It is doubtful if athletes will wish to train anymore for a political statement. You will not see any of this on msm. Is this the longrange forecast for the Games? Sad times.

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 Weather for August in New Zealand

The month may be slightly drier than average for both islands. This marks a turnaround for the weather, which has seen mostly wetter-than-average months in the North Island, apart from March. For that reason, anybody passing the central plateau will see hardly any snow left on the mountains. The rain has melted it.

For the North Island, after a relatively dry spell for the first 9 days, rain sets in and continues until around the 24^th, with the wettest period following the Southern declination around the 16^th. Hawkes Bay may get the least amount of rain, whereas areas north of Waikato may receive the most.

Around 15^th-16^th it may be very wet from Northland to the Bay of Plenty, including the Coromandel, with the chance of local flooding, including around Wellsford. Perigee number 7 is on the 21^st and is the date of the highest King tides. This may bring some much-needed snow to the Château area, as well as the higher reaches of the South Island.

Sunshine for both islands may be higher than average. Temperatures for all are expected to be around average, with about a month remaining of cooler nights in the north.

For the South Island, this may be a drier month than July, and may remind people of March. Like the North Island, the best weather may be in the first 10 days and the last week, except for the South Island West coast and Southland. Around the 17^th and 18^th, it may be very cold in Southland, with the chance of snowfalls in Otago and Canterbury. The same conditions may apply around the 31^st.

With Mercury passing in front of the Sun from the 8^th to the 17^th, the earthquake chances may be noticeably increased during this period. Also, but to a lesser extent, at the beginning and end of the month. Remember, there is never likely to be a tsunami in New Zealand. Note that the current scare stories about the Alpine Fault and the Hikurangi trench are overblown and are unlikely to eventuate. Nevertheless, if tremors are detected, it is best not to remain indoors, to go out in the open and to low ground and wait for the tremors to stop. The visible ripples in an open dish full of water will serve as an early and affordable warning system for any seismic activity.

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Weather for Australia

Apart from the first week for New South Wales, and the last week with Western Australia, most of the continent may experience drought conditions this month, with an easing of the harsh dry conditions in September. This may contribute to an increase in the differential reading for El Nino, which may tend to be a condition but not an episode.

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Weather for Ireland.

Pressures may fall in the first 10 days as depressions approach from the west, bringing unsettled conditions to most areas. Around the 12^th it may be warm and sunny mostly dry, and then during the remainder of August it becomes more unsettled, with rain on many days and generally cloudy conditions. Most of the rain may be in the form of showers. Although these showers may be locally heavy and accompanied by thunder, rainfall totals for the month may be below average.

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Understanding our website

To receive information on coming weather for any town, county, or area in New Zealand, Ireland, Australia, and the US, click on “Forecasts” and follow the drop-down menu and instructions, and you will receive an instant download of the weather. We service 64 towns in New Zealand, all counties in Ireland, the main Australian cities, and capital towns in the US states. From this website too, you can order the 2024 and 2025 almanacs for New Zealand. The 2025 Ireland weather almanac will be available by the end of next month.

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