Latest
MONDAY FEBRUARY 26, 2024
1-9-24
NZ for September 2024
Winter is over and spring is here. A mainly dry month for both islands. Anticyclones low down. Rain and cold conditions for the first few days, followed by fair weather 7-14. Canterbury and inland Otago can expect a dry month. Rain north of Central Plateau around 20th.
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22-8-24
The 2025 Ireland Weather Almanac is now available.
The book, comprisiing weather for next year for the whole country, is over 300 pages of rain maps per county, per day and month, frost and snow graphs, max+min temps, wind info etc. Includes fishing calendar, gardening guide, and update of solar and lunar cycles. All costs include postage. The regular version is 47BP, the hardback is 55BP and the e-version is 22BP.
The year 2025 in summary. The end of 2024 brings mild wet and windy conditions The El Nino index has stayed close to neutral during 2023 and 2024, but in 2025 the index moves towards the positive range. The sunspot cycle cycle #25 is expected to peak in 2026. Most precipitation for the whole country for 2025 may be July. April is likely to be the driest and sunniest month. It may be a warm year, sunnier than normal everywhere and drier than the South. The best weather may be the spring, which may be warm and sunny, and dry except in the North West. Although the summer may be wet in the east, temperatures and sunshine may be above normal. The weather for autumn may be warm and dry everywhere, with sunshine totals near normal.
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The 2024 version is still available, now halfprice for the e-version. The hardback is at https://predictweather.co.nz/Details.aspx?id=669, the regular version is at https://predictweather.co.nz/Details.aspx?id=668, and the e-version is at https://predictweather.co.nz/Details.aspx?id=668.
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10-8-24
Earthquake in Russia
Seismic activity is once again on the move, as our August graph shows, especially in Russia. In Japan the knee-jerk reaction has been to expect a mega event (.>9mag) soon.
Of course, after an earthquake is the time for these warnings, and the usual (yawn) tsunami warning gets splashed over the world's newspapers.
Remember if you are an expert, it is important to seize the opportunity for a newspaper mention every once in a while, or people will tend to
forget you.
There is no doubt that the moon is getting closer and will continue doing so until 17 October when it begins again to move away again. but that is hardly news, as it varies all the time.
Mercury is in front of the sun at the moment, and from now til the 17th, you can expect some movement in the ground. In this world now where if a king sneezes somewhere there must be some revolution, it is important to remain level-headed.
NZ is in no imminent danger, except for the incessant in-your-face geologists having their usual group meltdown.
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Hurricane threat greater next month in US
For those hurricane watchers in the United States, the
current tropical cyclone Debbie at present making for landfall in Florida should
once again peter out, once it hits the Florida coast. It continues our
prediction that this year few hurricanes, if any, may severely impact the US.
This is not to say that no wind or rain damage may happen to
various coastal cities, but it is a question of scale, and we are talking about
full-blown hurricane activity that has devastating consequences.
However, looking ahead, the early September period may bring
more hurricane-type activity than August, because the new moon is on 3
September and the lunar equinox is on 5 September. This month there is a week
between them, but next month this changes to two days. As well, the lunar
perigee is gradually becoming more powerful. This will significantly increase
wind strength and direction but may still be less than the US meteorological
media are suggesting, when they say it will be a heavy hurricane year. We
remind you that we are still edging toward the El Ninos, which put the brake on
cyclones.
According to Alan Watts, El Niño’s are a natural phenomenon and of little concern. El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean are natural patterns that have been going on for millions of years. El Niño events in the 21st century have indeed had some strong warming spikes, but arguably not in the past 50 years.
But as the moon is regular, and so the lunar declination cycle, of which the El Nino episodes are a regular function, we averagely can expect to experience two El Ninos per decade. At the moment, we are in a hurricane-quiet period. The in-between phases, formerly known as the Trade Winds, reach a peak known as La Nina, are more hurricane-rich.
There was a weak El Nino near the end of 2020, before dropping back to neutral. Currently, the ENSO differential scale has moved from neutral to the edge of the El Nino range; still technically neutral. It is not expected to shift until 2026.
As for New Zealand, fine weather is due to end soon after
this coming weekend, with maximum rain occurring just after the midmonth.
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Are the Olympics an expensive mistake?
They could not prevent the rain during the opening ceremony, despite the claims of weather control. Then they staged the disgusting pornographic display that has driven
away Christians and Muslims alike, with the Last Supper depicted as a gay drag event, and consequently the restaurants and cafes have been making
no money with empty streets. Tourists have simply appeared to have stayed away.
People seem to have checked out of hotels because the Olympics has gone one hundred
percent cashless for products and services that are exclusively via QR code.
Whilst the media has covered all the sports and given the impression of good
crowds, nevertheless the dodgy weather and real story is yet to be told. In the
women’s boxing, Italy’s Angela Carini lasted just 46 seconds against Algeria’s
male component Imane Khelif. She stated afterwards, “I have never been hit so
hard in my life.” Women's sports is now in total jeopardy and the whole Olympic concept is fast becoming a mess. It is doubtful if athletes will wish to train anymore for a political statement. You will not see any of this on msm. Is this the longrange forecast for the Games? Sad times.
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Weather for August in New Zealand
The month may be slightly drier than
average for both islands. This marks a turnaround for the weather, which has
seen mostly wetter-than-average months in the North Island, apart from March.
For that reason, anybody passing the central plateau will see hardly any snow
left on the mountains. The rain has melted it.
For the North
Island, after a relatively dry spell for the first 9 days, rain sets in and
continues until around the 24th, with the wettest period following
the Southern declination around the 16th. Hawkes Bay may get the
least amount of rain, whereas areas north of Waikato may receive the most.
Around 15th-16th
it may be very wet from Northland to the Bay of Plenty, including the Coromandel,
with the chance of local flooding, including around Wellsford. Perigee number 7
is on the 21st and is the date of the highest King tides. This may
bring some much-needed snow to the Château area, as well as the higher reaches
of the South Island.
Sunshine for both
islands may be higher than average. Temperatures for all are expected to be around
average, with about a month remaining of cooler nights in the north.
For the South
Island, this may be a drier month than July, and may remind people of March.
Like the North Island, the best weather may be in the first 10 days and the
last week, except for the South Island West coast and Southland. Around the 17th
and 18th, it may be very cold in Southland, with the chance of snowfalls
in Otago and Canterbury. The same conditions may apply around the 31st.
With Mercury
passing in front of the Sun from the 8th to the 17th, the
earthquake chances may be noticeably increased during this period. Also, but to
a lesser extent, at the beginning and end of the month. Remember, there is
never likely to be a tsunami in New Zealand. Note that the current scare
stories about the Alpine Fault and the Hikurangi trench are overblown and are
unlikely to eventuate. Nevertheless, if tremors are detected, it is best not to
remain indoors, to go out in the open and to low ground and wait for the tremors
to stop. The visible ripples in an open dish full of water will serve as an
early and affordable warning system for any seismic activity.
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Weather for Australia
Apart from the first week for New South Wales, and the last
week with Western Australia, most of the continent may experience drought
conditions this month, with an easing of the harsh dry conditions in September.
This may contribute to an increase in the differential reading for El Nino,
which may tend to be a condition but not an episode.
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Weather for Ireland.
Pressures may fall in the first 10 days as depressions approach
from the west, bringing unsettled conditions to most areas. Around the 12th
it may be warm and sunny mostly dry, and then during the remainder of August it
becomes more unsettled, with rain on many days and generally cloudy conditions.
Most of the rain may be in the form of showers. Although these showers may be
locally heavy and accompanied by thunder, rainfall totals for the month may be
below average.
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Understanding our website
To receive information on coming weather for any town,
county, or area in New Zealand, Ireland, Australia, and the US, click on
“Forecasts” and follow the drop-down menu and instructions, and you will
receive an instant download of the weather. We service 64 towns in New Zealand,
all counties in Ireland, the main Australian cities, and capital towns in the US
states. From this website too, you can order the 2024 and 2025 almanacs for New
Zealand. The 2025 Ireland weather almanac will be available by the end of next
month.
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