Best NZ holiday weather days
FRIDAY DECEMBER 24, 2010
COOK ISLANDS
Fine til 1 January, then driest time 13-31 January.
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FIJI
Fine 1-9 January and 14 January -25 February
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NORTHLAND
Kaitaia: no heavy rain until 18 February
Kaikohe: no double digit rain until end of February
Dargaville: heavy rain 24 January, only 5 rain days until then
Russell: good weather until 17 February
Kerikeri: mostly fine until 10 January
Whangarei: good weather until 22 January
Maungaturoto/Mangawai: good Xmas day until 24 January
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AUCKLAND
Whangaparoa: mainly dry until the end of January
Auckland, mostly fine from 25 December - 22 January, (just 2-3 rain days expected)
Waiheke: mostly dry until 10 January, best holiday weather 28 January - 20 February
Waiuku: mostly good until 4 January
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COROMANDEL
Thames; mostly good until 22 January, best 11-21 January, also 26 January - 20 February
Coromandel: good weather until 9 January, best 11-21 January, also 26 January - 9 February
Tairua: good weather until 20 February
Whitianga: good weather until 12 February
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WAIKATO
Hamilton: mostly dry until 9 January, rain 23 January then mostly dry until 2 March
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BAY OF PLENTY
Katikati: no major unsettled weather until first week March
Waihi: good weather until 12 February
Whangamata: good weather until March
Tauranga: good weather until 2 March
Rotorua: good weather until 9 January, best 15 January -1 March
Whakatane: good weather until 9 January
Opotiki: good weather until 4 January
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CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND
Central Plateau: rain on 30 December
Taupo: good weather until 9 January, best weather first half March
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HAWKES BAY
Gisborne: rain on 30 December, best weather second half of January, fine 28 January -10 February, also 14-20 February.
Hastings: rain on 30 December, mostly dry 15-22 January, also 28 January -20 February
Hicks Bay: rain on 30 December, then little or none until 13 January
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MANAWATU
Feilding: mostly dry until 28 December, also (just 3 rain days) 27 January -1 March
Palmerston North: best weather 27 January – 4 February, also 14 February – 1 March
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WAIRARAPA
Levin: rain on 30 December, best weather 27 January – 8 February
Dannevirke: rain on 29 December, best weather 15 January – 9 February
Paraparaumu: rain on 30 December, best weather in second half of February
Wellington: rain on 29 December, best weather 25 January -10 February, also 14 February - 1 March
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NORTH ISLAND WEST COAST
Raglan: good weather until 9 January, best 25 January – 4 February, also 3 - 14 March
New Plymouth: good weather until 7 January, best time throughout second half February
Wanganui: good weather until 9 January
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SOUTH ISLAND
TOP
Takaka: good till 3 January
Nelson: 2 rain days now to 14 January
Blenheim: best weather, (only 2 rain days) 25 January - 28 February, also 7 - 21 March
Motueka: rain on 3 January, driest 19 January - 1 March
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WEST COAST
Westport: rain on 29 December
Greymouth: rain on 28 December, mostly clear 25 February – 2 March
Haast: dry until 2 January
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CANTERBURY
Cheviot: wet 28 December, fine second half January
Kaikoura: first big rain first week March
Christchurch: best weather 25 January - 4 February and 13 - 20 February
Hanmer; good weather until 28 December, best period 25 January – 9 February
Ashburton: rain 28 December, best period 20 January - 4 February, also (just 1 rain day) between 25 February – 25 March
Timaru: rain 28 December, mainly dry 23 February – 11 April
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OTAGO
Oamaru: rain on 28 December, best weather 25 February – 12 March
Queenstown: mostly good until 9 January, best weather 16 February – 12 March
Te Anau: good weather until 6 January
Dunedin: doesn't clear for more than a few days until 15 February – 6 March
Balclutha: best weather (1 rain day) 16 February - 6 March
Cromwell: rain on 28 December
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CHATHAMS
3-8 January mostly fine, also (3 light rain days) 13 January - 4 February
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SOUTHLAND
Gore: mostly clear 16 February – 28 March
Puysegur: mostly clear 20 February – 11 March, and 6 – 14 April
Invercargill: mostly clear 18 February – 12 March
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DATES FOR INCREASED EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
20 February, 19- 22 March and 18 April..
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WEATHER-THINGS TO THINK ABOUT OVER THE BREAK
1. forget La Nina
The talk of La Nina is mostly nonsense. It was called the Trade Winds when I was in Standard 3, and easterlies blowing west along the equatorial band was always said to be the normal situation. By changing the name in recent times scientists have qualified for new research funding, as if it is a new weather phenomenon that needs scrutiny. But La Nina can hardly be an anomaly when the official forecasters have said it will bring both dry and wet conditions over summer. Yeah, right - that is normal for NZ.
2. watch out for very hot days
There will be some hot spells, like the end of this month, and the beginning and end of January. Don't go to Brisbane after Xmas - SE QLD will be getting a heat wave. Some places, like Gisborne, Chch and S Cant should get over 30°C in the last weeks of Jan and February, even Timaru, Tekapo and maybe Queenstown. January and December may be cloudier than normal, but expect average sunshine in the other months. The news stories in 2011 will probably be tropical cyclones in the Pacific, returning after an absence, about 12 forming in all, with about half reaching and affecting parts of NZ, mainly with wind. The drought will also fill the pages of newspapers, with speculations of relief right up to the rain I expect to arrive in May.
3. it won't be all hot
We’ve got some southwesterlies kicking in now and they’ll go through now for most of January and February. It’ll mean a cooler than average month, and no long runs of hot weather. The warmest times in summer are always around full moon to last quarter, so keep your eye on the moon size for your guide as to when things will heat up. But the sun is still inactive, which is why it's so cold in Europe. If you are contemplating going to Ireland, February won't be too bad. If you're going to Australia, avoid March, because that will be the cyclone month.
4. prepare, because droughts should continue
Despite the pre-Xmas rain the drought should continue in the east of Northland through January, then shift to the west of Northland in February and all of Northland for March and April. Greater Auckland and western BoP also get dry conditions in January as do Rotorua, Taupo and mid and S Canterbury. By February drought spreads to all of BoP, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Waikato, Central Plateau, Taranaki, parts of the lower NI, also the top of the SI to Kaikoura. In March dryness continues in Northland and Greater Auckland, but the rest of the NI gets relief, while the SI goes dry Canterbury southwards. Rain relief in May will leave only eastern BoP and the far south still dry. So drought should go all summer, all autumn, and winter will also be drier just about everywhere. Only late autumn, specifically May and June could be wetter than average for the country, with the rest of the months drier than average. There should be relief rains for Northland in May, June, Sept, Oct and Nov. For other districts most rain comes March to June, with all the other months drier than average.
5. farmers should get grain in
June brings the last rains for a while. Whangarei and Gisborne/Hawkes Bay start to dry out in the NI, and Canterbury and coastal Otago in the SI. Then a winter drought begins, with July and August in 2011 much drier for all districts. In Sept and Oct the BoP may get hit hardest by winter dryness, while the rest of the regions may not fare as badly. Snow may come much later in the season, which may hurt SI operators. In November Taranaki may be talking about drought, also much of the SI, and in December, Northland through to the BoP are once again significantly dry.
For more information write to ken@predictweather.com
© Ken Ring 2010